There is an underdog software platform out there that might just surprise Java and .net world. It's called Flash. Reasons:
- One of the architects of the next generation was ASP.Net father (Mark Anders) and Tim O'Reilly is a board member
- They will start using Eclipse (That in some ways is a lot better than Visual Studio)
- They have a good relationship with Open Source communities (swf format is open source, Eclipse, ActionScript = ECMA-262 JavaScript 2.0)
- ActionScript (JavaScript 2.0) language has the beneficts of strongly typed languages (auto-complete, strong checking) and of loosely typed languages (not so much conversion code)
- It has the cross-browser, cross-platform most pervasive runtime environment
- Writing applications in a fat client way is a lot easier and designs remain a lot simpler
- After Gmail and Google Maps everybody wants more interactive interfaces. Just check this (mouse wheel supported) to compare with AJAX.
- Very good streaming format
- Every Nokia cell phones will have flash player built-in
- SAP enables the usage of Flex in NetWeaver
- Adobe has load of $$$
- They have crossed the cultural blog chasm better than other companies
- High price for Flex but the long-term strategy is more abranging. The long term might just be to long... Ajax is growing and Avalon will start soon.
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